STARSHIP: ELON'S NEXT BIG MUSKONOMY UNLOCK

Kind: captions Language: en So from the SpaceX XAI Colossus 1 lease deal with Anthropic to Elon's visit to the Intel Fab, all the exciting stuff at Starbase Texas in preparation for Starship IFD12 and of course the Tesla semi ramp semi ramp and is it semi semi Larry? I I keep getting mixed up. >> Yeah, you say tomato, I say tomato or the other way around actually. >> Uh yeah, we call it a semi here. You guys call it a semi there. >> Yeah. >> But listen, semi semi it's a very hot product right now. >> So absolutely the US is in the middle of a manufacturing boom. I mean we are quarter by quarter doubling uh manufacturing investment. Um in fact that's been my best investment this year. I I invested in an infrastructure company and it literally has trip uh a 5x now on the verge of getting to 6x in a year um on a small company but it was very infrastructure focused actual data center focused >> but but manufacturing in general is doubling every year at this point and one of the tests of that is how many flat bids are being sold. Well, in order to have flatbeds, you got to have tractors. In order to have tractors, you got to have today semiis. So, it's a very hot product. Things are going very well. Um, I expect uh it to be ramping, you know, in record time. So, it's pretty exciting for the semi business. But, you know, at the end of the day, the semiis are really limited business because at best they can manuf 50,000 a year. And so, you know, at, you know, it's it's not going to get much more than $2.5 billion dollars of revenue. And that's not going to move the needle. >> But how about when these become autonomous? >> I think we're looking a good few years down the road. probably not not less than five years down the road when they become autonomous. Um yeah, I mean, you know, it's very very hard to see uh how easy it's going to be for the bureaucrats to, you know, unlock that. And the truth of the matter is it'll save thousands, tens of thousands of lives. The problem is one life dying because of a semiautonomous accident will end that program for a long time to come. It's just the nature of our inability to understand, you know, risk and how to judge risk. Um, we just are not very good at it, unfortunately. You only have to look at the EV, you know, accidents to date and say, you know, EVs create fire as well, hardly. But, but one EV burning up, you know, is like the end of the world. Meanwhile, you know, so many gas cars catch fire a day, it's incredible. But nobody nobody will even publish that in a in even a local newspaper. >> Yeah. Yeah. Well, speaking of which, uh we've got the 10 billion miles driven on FSD supervised milestone that we were all looking forward to. That was crossed this past >> some of us were looking forward to that. Yeah. >> Why? Why some >> Well, I mean, frankly, it doesn't matter. I mean the you know Elon conjured up the number out of out of imagination and he looks to be approximately right. We're at a point where the car drives extraordinarily well on the road uh except for extreme corner cases um in very unusual environments and mainly it's uh screws up the parking. that's its biggest difficulty is parking in complex and and navigating complex parking lots. So, you know, he's been approximately right. But um and and it's probably robo taxi ready as ready as say the way my car is as intelligent as the way my car is which is not that intelligent >> when it comes to judging you know absolutes in terms of every single corner case which apparently is the judgment standard that is being applied. So yeah, I mean 10 billion miles is good, but 20 billion is better. And we'll get to 20 billion a hell of a lot faster than we got to 10 billion. Indeed. Indeed. So are you while we're on the subject of robot taxi? Are you kind of how do you feel about this current ramp of the uh robot? >> I'm very positive. I'm very positive. I think the ramp is going >> I think the ramp is going as I thought it would go. Um, and I think that it's going to continue at this pace for a good 3 to 6 months and then we're going to see some awfully rapid ra um you know expansion. I the expansion of Ro over tax is going to be very sudden and very dramatic and in terms of rate of expansion pretty violent but it's going to build on a fairly large base. So the larger the base the more rapid the expansion is going to become. people are very um impatient and they're going to continue being impatient for a while, >> but it's going to come and it'll be it'll be here within a year. It'll be here before uh before the um the merger. >> Before the moment, yeah, before the moment the merger is a mountain house. Not before the merger. Before the moment the merger is announced. >> I see. Okay. So that means if you're seeing robot taxi ramping by the end of this year and a sudden explosion, you're really telling us or signaling to us that this is probably an announcement that we could expect at the end of the year in Q4, >> I believe. So yeah, I we'll have to get past the lockup. No announcement can be made before the end of the lockup in my judgment. I could be wrong. And I think that that's going to be timely in terms of the ramp and in terms of the roll out of Optimus and all this unst here's a very interesting fact for you Roy. Last week there was the announcement of the anthropic deal. When SpaceX announced the anthropic deal almost immediately Tesla stock went up eight bucks. You can mark the hour >> of the announcement. Within the hour, there was an eight buck rise in in the in the Tesla uh pricing and it went up from there. Now, it went up quite a lot, but there was also a release of some of the sales figures which were very very positive >> from China. >> From China. So, it's hard to unthread that. But ever since the um the deal with Anthropic, there's been a very very strong undercurrent to the Tesla stock price which continue which improves my argument which proves my argument. I shouldn't say improves, but it proves my argument that at this point Tesla stock is going to be very very impacted by the SpaceX IPO. And I predict that if there's a successful IPO, and what I mean by successful IPO, somewhere are pricing in first week's trading in the 1700 to 20,000 price range, we will see Tesla stock getting into the 500 plus range. And if the price gets above 2,000, we will see a price range in the 550 to 600 price range. >> So what we're going to see now is Tesla stock and SpaceX stock moving very very closely uh upward with one another. So those two stocks are now closely bound. They're closely bound by their common futures and by their common management. >> You mentioned these unlocks, Larry. Can you please explain how what sort of a timeline you're you're kind of assessing that these unlocks will happen at >> I'm so weary about these timeline things because people stop >> or rather let me reframe let me reframe it. So there's this whole idea of these unlocks, but I think we need to understand what they are and how they work and why they exist. Both SpaceX and Tesla are stocks where we're not counting the current operations of those companies. We're counting upon the future of those companies. Yeah. >> And by that I mean the kinds of futures uh that you know f that FSD unsupervised will count towards that robo taxi unlimited expansion will count towards that uh Optimus uh rollout will count towards that you know semi uh large scale orders, which we're beginning to see now, will count towards. And so, and and uh the the growth of energy sales will count towards we're going to see these step by step by step by step unlocks >> of the value. Why? because we've discounted the future value in the stock price and the st the future value is not tied to earnings per share but events and new businesses that are going to open up in the past. Look, Tesla has this massive uh operational um um um what is the word I'm searching for? Gosh, words come so with such difficulty. uh operational um u u um multiplier. It >> the the um overhead in Tesla is relatively fixed and relatively very small. >> Each new business line that contributes adds directly as if there's no overhead involved to the profitability. So when we were looking for very big expansion of the auto ind business, we were we were eyeing this operational you know leverage that it had. Well, they decided to transition from an auto company into, you know, a robotics company and to a robo taxi company and to a semi company and to an energy company. So the the growth of the auto of the auto business was going to be very constrained. So that meant that over time there wasn't this level of you know growth in terms of of earnings but now by adding these additional businesses we get that operational leverage back again. So >> right >> it's these are all explosive businesses potentially explosive businesses. >> Yes. >> And each explosion comes without any operational dilution at all. >> So we get this Yeah. >> Yeah. There's been a lot of I've seen a lot of constonnation uh online and it's just bubbled up in in this past week around >> um this entire merger that we've been discussing for a few months now. >> Yeah, there's a lot of it. There's a lot of it >> and some, you know, some people that I respect very much >> um are very negative about it. But they're negative from the point of view of timing because we're so close to several several of these events occurring that they believe will add significant value. >> Yeah. The timing of these unlocks that you just explained because that again takes it to the next level of revenue, the next level of TAM, the next level of share on the value. But here's the thing that they're missing and they're missing it. They don't understand that the great unlock is the merger itself. >> Okay? >> Because you know, you only have to look at the price action of the Tesla stock in response to events in the SpaceX world. >> But a lot of that is sympatical to an extent, >> but it's going to be sympatico. So when there's a merger and there's un this lock unlock happens, it's going to impact the stock. >> Correct. >> But you have more but in a merger you're going to have more opportunities. You're going to have, you know, more events occurring and more frequently. >> Yeah. So I I think it's a bit of a situation where the the waters are a bit muddy right now and people aren't seeing >> as I understand >> these convergences. I get that Roden but it's because people don't look people who are very very very close to Tesla have studied Tesla for years and years and years have watched that stock on a daily minute-by-minute basis who are highly invested in the stock in the story they aren't aware of the opportunities on the SpaceX side of the house >> which are every bit as great if not greater than the Tesla side of the house. >> So they say, "Well, the SpaceX stock is pumped up right now and the Tesla stock is, you know, lost its air right now. Let's wait for it to be pumped up, then we'll merge." What they miss is that SpaceX, the SpaceX IPO, if it's successful, will drive the price of Tesla very, very significantly. We're going to be sitting here in July with space with Tesla stock in the 500s. And why is it going to be in the 500s? Not because any of these unlocks would have happened in the Tesla side of the house, but because of the SpaceX IPO. >> Now, you could argue, well, SpaceX Tesla is going to be 3,000. Fine. If Tesla and SpaceX merge, they're going to be it's going to be the equivalent of 3,000 anyway because SpaceX is going to be, you know, in the 4,000 range. I you you have to understand that the opportunities in SpaceX are as close and as impactful >> as the Tesla milestones. >> There's no doubt about it in my mind. You know, we are at the brink of Starship becoming successful. The Starship unlock is unbelievable. People didn't understand the Falcon 9 unlock. >> I understood it, but nobody else understood it. Well, that's not true. Not many >> outside of the SpaceX world understood the value of it. >> Yeah. No, even within the SpaceX world, um, because everybody is kind of grown up with Tesla as a car company and used to those metrics, um, and the new space economy, which rides on the back of the Falcon 9, uh, is a bit of a different ecosystem to wrap your head around. >> Let's not be specific about Falcon 9 because there are multiple product lines. So, let me let me go through them. You've got Starship as the future. >> Yes. >> And that unlocks a huge number of futures because what did Falcon 9 do? Falcon 9 unlocked Starlink. >> Starlink is an incredible cash cow. >> Yeah. >> And it's only at the beginning of its success. >> True. Because right now all 10,000 satellites that are up there are not even a sixth of the bandwidth that is going to go up there with the new uh satellites, the new Starling satellites that can be lofted by Starship. So the Starship unlock for Starlink is going to multiply the Starling success by a factor of between 10 and 20 >> because every single satellite that goes up will have some enormous and maybe even two orders of magnitude more capacity than a single Starling satellite has today. And it can lift double more than double the number of satellites each flight. And instead of taking a two to three week turnaround time on the booster, it's going to be a two to three day if not a two to three hour turnaround. >> Yeah. And in a couple of years, >> instead of having a instead of having a fleet of, >> you know, tens of Falcon 9, they're going to have a fleet of thousands >> of starships. >> Correct. >> So, when you put all that together, you get some sense of where Starlink is going to grow to. And the growth is is not linear. The growth is going to be like, you know, absolutely vertical. That's Starlink. That's not data centers in the sky. We get to >> I think people also it would be helpful for for people to kind of grasp this if they compare TAMs. Uh and the TAM of Starlink alone is far greater than anything else that Tesla has on a subscription basis. >> Oh yeah. It's greater than than Robo Taxi. >> Yeah. I mean let's get to the next subscription possibility and that is data centers in the sky. >> Yeah. >> So let's start by talking about not just the potential with Starship, not just the potential with Starlink, but let's digress for a moment and let's look at XAI. Everybody complained, "Ah, SpaceX is not even going to be making a profit because XAI is losing $15 million$15 billion dollars a year. I get millions, billions, trillions mixed up these days because it's really hard to keep up." >> Yeah. But but in one deal with Anthropic >> on a now on a now out ofdate data center. >> Yeah. >> Spex has wiped out the loss. They've wiped out the loss. >> Yeah. >> That they were accused of making. So that the cash burn Larry I remember us talking about this cash burn has been a concern where XAI >> you know and then now this the moment I read that I was like oh my gosh this is this one deal with anthropic for an >> one deal with anthropic >> for an outdated data center >> groundbased out up outdated data center and now just think about what the opportunity is in base. >> Yeah. And that too, Larry, I don't think it's the the full capacity of Colossus one. It's just >> It is the full capacity. No, they bought the entire Colossus one. No, no confusion at all. It's the full capac they've bought Colossus one >> without paying cash for it, but they're paying it over time. >> That's functionally what's happened, which >> which could happen with Colossus 2 when they get to Colossus 3. I mean it, you know, a lot depends on just how much they get h how much uh c the size of the customer base they can grow >> for just grock. >> Yeah. >> But the point is that selling data capacity, data processing, selling data center capacity is now SpaceX's business. and Anthropic are signed up not just for data centers on Earth, but they signed up for data centers in the sky. >> Yeah. And it's not just Anthropic. I I wager I would wager that every single AI giant moving forward including Google, >> including Google in the long run will be a customer of SpaceX AI. And also important to keep in mind that XAI is now a computational infrastructure company through this deal. >> Thank you. So, you know, and then we get to the processes themselves. SpaceX has the cash to build the fabs. Tesla Tesla's cash is tied up right now. I don't know that they will have the cash to build the fab. So >> the the fab is going to be the key to the future of both companies. >> Yeah. So, anybody with any foresight who isn't crippled by having to track the price of the stock every single day and every single hour for the last 5 years or 10 years or whatever it's been >> will understand that the opportunity of the two companies coming together is incredible. >> Yeah. But their problem is that the price of the stock is way going way back to 2021. >> Yeah. >> To the peak of 2021. You got to understand >> while everything else is skyrocketing. >> Well, you got to understand one thing about the peak of 2021. The peak of 2021 was a aberration. What was the aberration? The inclusion in the S&P. It ran up for that and it never actually saw that number again. If but but here's the thing. Here's the thing. We're going to see another moment like that. And the moment like that is when SpaceX goes public. And if it that if that flirtation is successful, we will see Tesla stock reach all-time highs and then some. And if if it accord and and in fact state in advance that I'm probably more than wrong, but it's my opinion, it's my belief >> that we're going to see Tesla in the 500s. upon the evidence of success of the SpaceX flotation. Now, >> no, no conversation has been held in Tesla about a merger with SpaceX or vice versa. Of that, you can just my opinion, but you could you can write that down. I mean, nobody at Tesla is stupid enough to have raised that issue. And nobody at SpaceX is stupid enough to have raised that issue. It will be a while before they're able to announce it. And what do I mean by while? It's going to have to be out of lockup. And so, there's plenty of time to get to Robo Taxi launch. It's plent or robo taxi growth. There's plenty of time for all of that to take place. There's plenty of time for Optimus to come out of the shelf. It is out of the out of the factory. There's plenty of time for all of that to happen and for these events to occur, the announcement of big sales of the semi and so on so forth. So, so I think that the announcement is going to take place either at the end of the year or early in the new year. I don't think it take place before the end of the lockup. I think the lockup's going to take, you know, a sequence of events and and I think those events are going to come to an end of the year. >> So when you say lock up, do you mean the the um freeing up of u investment firms and high net in individuals and family offices to sell pre-existing preipo SpaceX shares? Yeah, that it's not a particular it's not a particular category of of buy of owner, but it's anybody who owns shares in Tesla before in SpaceX before the IPO. In other words, inside. >> How do you see that playing out, Larry? Because I imagine every time there's a um there two things. A um I mean considering you have an individual or an entity has sufficient number of shares um pre-IPO you would be tempted to take some cream off the top. >> You can't when that unlock presents. >> Oh when the unlock Yeah. I mean that I look somebody said that it's going to be impossible to dump 1.75 trillion dollars of stock onto the market on day one. >> Oh, for sure. >> Or on any any single day. >> Mhm. Now, obviously Elon's not going to sell his 40% and obviously um some of the insiders are unlikely to sell much more than just enough to perhaps take some risk off the table. But nonetheless, the standard the standard is either 3 months or 6 months of lock up for insiders >> because there is such a huge quantity of stock and because they're trying to get retailers stock. I think what they will do is have some sort of rolling unlock >> of the lockup. I think it'll be monthly or you know some maybe monthly maybe week I I don't know the you can't you can't you can't open $1.7 trillion dollars of stock into the market the the market will sag by 30 40 50% on day one. >> Yeah. So, so you have to be very measured about how how you unlock insider shares and and but on the other hand you must provide sufficient liquidity for there to be a market and you must provide sufficient shares for index comp index share index uh funds >> to to to buy the stock. >> Yeah. Yeah. >> Otherwise, you're going to have the same situation where market goes crazy, stock gets to an un, you know, natural high and then for years it >> takes time to get back there again. >> Yeah. When demand is far more than supply. Yeah. >> Yeah. So, they're going to have to balance this thing out. And I don't know, >> it's going to be very tricky. But also, it's going to be a great buying opportunity. Every dip once, you know, every unlock hits, there's going to be a slight dip. that's, >> you know, a great buying opportunity as well moving forward. >> Yeah. >> But yeah, so there's this um I, you know, in today's chat, we're going to keep meandering across the musconomy because everything is so connected. Um, and I I thought I'd bring up this very interesting post from Pier Faragu. Um, fun fact, SpaceX will make more profit out of renting Colossus One than Enthropic out of selling tokens in data centers will produce. You may argue it depends on how you count, but it's a reality. Compute is king. And Kathy just uh had another post. Thanks to its deal with Anthropic XCI, now SpaceX AI. By the way, is it is it official? Um I I thought there was some talk of a new logo coming out, but what are you hearing? What's your sense? Is it now can we call it SpaceX AI officially? Well, I think the com the compute company is called the AI company is called SpaceX AI, but SpaceX remains the corporate uh parent. That's my reading. >> I see. Okay. >> But maybe she's right. >> Okay. So, she says, >> uh, by the way, I I take I take pride and ownership in her tweet, in her post. I was I was the author of that idea in her in in conversation with her. >> Nice. >> Yeah. So again, uh she says this is um SpaceX is now pivoting from massive losses at Colossus to significant profitability as a Neo cloud Neocloud >> on an estimated 5 to six plus billion in annual revenues. Brilliant. Brilliant SpaceX move. So this just goes prove that um you know people need to wrap their heads around this gargantuan change that is just taking place with one deal and then with anthropic and then what this now signifies. As I said >> yeah very few people understand the power of this moment. >> Yeah. >> And only if you really appreciate the data center in the sky does this moment mean something. >> Yeah. because I'm not sure it would have been of great interest if it was simply Elon trying to get himself out of a hole. That's not happening here. And Kathy's right. I mean, >> yeah. Okay. >> I was right. >> You're right. >> Yeah. >> Okay. So since we are talking about data centers in the sky, we ought to talk about if Starship. There's been a lot of hectic activity around Starbase, the uh V3 um rocket tests and uh test fires and a lot of that. Uh there's been a bit of a push back, a delay by a couple of days. I think we're now looking at the 15th of May or thereabouts, is it? >> Yeah. Are you still Are you still headed there, by the way? >> Yeah. Yeah, I am. >> Okay. >> I'm leaving I'm leaving tomorrow and uh I will be away for two weeks. So, our future conversations at least for the next two weeks are going to be on the road. >> Mhm. >> Uh via my Starink Mini. Um I you know the the delay is really fairly normal. I think that about 50% of all the launches uh to date 11 to date have been delayed by one two or three days because of you know last minute issues. This is a particularly difficult uh launch because it is a new launch tower. >> Yeah. And launch tower is as important as it's called stage zero by Elon. And it's called stage zero because the launch pad is as intrinsic a part of the rocket and and the process of launching the and and the and the uh the effort to launch the the the rocket um as the rocket itself and even more so in the case of Starship because it lands on the launch pad as well on on the launch tower. So, uh, this is a brand new launch tower, and it's a brand new rocket. This rocket looks a little bit like the previous ones. Looks a lot like the previous ones, but it's re-engineered from the ground up. >> Yeah. >> And it's much larger. It's much more powerful. It's using a brand new rocket engine. Um, version three of the of the rocket engine has no doesn't even resemble version. >> Yeah, the Raptor is crazy. It just went from most incredible piece of engineering I've ever seen in my life. >> It is the most incredible piece of engineering in I've ever seen in my life. I you know I've grown up >> I think when it first came out like there are a lot of people who are questioning there are a lot of missing parts here. What's going on? because it was so >> you know the the guy who headed up uh you know their principal well the their competitor who used to be their principal competitor is now number three for obvious reasons said you know it's one thing to show a picture of the engine but you should show all the piping as well and Gshotwell responded with the with the rocket actually firing and saying not bad for a rocket without all its piping all its peripherals. >> I remember that. I remember that. >> Yeah. I mean, you know, it it is so incredibly well engineered that rocket engineers can't recognize it as a rocket engine as a complete rocket engine. That's how brilliantly engineered it is. It It completely rewrites the book on rocket on on rocket motor engineering. So, we've got a brand new rocket motor. We've got a brand new booster that is completely re-engineered, dramatically re-engineered. And we've got a completely uh new ship which is also fantastic new engineering. And we're going to launch it for the first time from this new launchpad. It's, you know, we've already blown up one booster and blown up one ship in testing. Amazing. Yeah, they did a static fire yesterday that was just it was full duration, full throttle. They've never tested on the launch pad at full throttle before because they've never been able to do it. >> But anyway, this launchpad is built to take it. >> Yeah. I've just I've just finished reading a book which is the history of the launchpads in Cape Canaveral and Cape Kenn and and Kennedy Space Center >> um dur during the Apollo during the Apollo period. And it talks about the efforts to build those uh launch pads and build the the ground systems and the ground support for um Apollo and and then for the shuttle. And you know when you read it and you understand the amount of work and energy that goes into building these launch pads just incredible. Yeah. That's the static fire from yesterday. Full duration. >> Yeah. Yeah. Pretty crazy. I was a bit nervous when I saw that because the last time the Delu system had a bit of an oopsy moment, but that >> it's strong. >> Yeah. Yeah, >> it stood there strong. Yeah. >> Now we'll have to see if >> I am so jealous of you, Larry. I am so jealous. I shall live vicariously through your exploits at Starbase. >> Yeah. Well, we'll see. You know, I I I I picked my I picked my launches very carefully because, you know, I was there when they when they captured >> the first caught the first booster >> with Mechazilla. Wow. Oh, boy. >> It was one of the most exciting times of my life. In fact, you know, I've had a very eventful life. But man, that was a moment. >> Yeah. >> Well, I I was up with my daughter having a watch party as we tend to do. She's a little older now, so not so much. But, you know, then she was young enough for me to bully and get along with me. And we were screaming our lungs out because it was so fantastic. It's so unbelievable and so exciting. Oh, boy. >> Yeah. I was there for two, five, six, and eight. Nine. Eight or nine, I forget. So this will be 10. Yeah, >> it's got to be something. Yeah. So, okay. What do we talk about next? I think um we should talk about Terraab and Elon was at the Intel campus this week. I think there's a lot of interesting things happening. Um >> Intel are having a moment. Intel are having a moment. >> Yeah. Are they? So talk about >> Apple announced yesterday >> by Trump. >> Yeah. Apple announced yesterday that they're buying in from from Intel. This is a very special moment. >> You know, I I accuse Jacuse Apple for being the agent of China's rise in electronics. >> Yes. And I, you know, there is a book that's been written about it that details exactly what Tim Cook did that really gutted electronic manufacturing in the United States and even in Taiwan and placed China in the catbird seat >> and uh it it incredibly well researched and by the way Apple now claim that they're building 50% of their uh output in India But it's a lie. It's a lie. They're assembling 50% of the apples that they sell. They're still being manufactured >> in China. >> China. >> The guts are still being manufactured in China. >> That has to end. And the sooner it ends, the better. And Apple is responsible for it. Apple is responsible for incredible, you know, Apple bought the equipment, specialized, highly specialized equipment, a lot of the German highly, highly, you know, advanced manufacturing equipment and they shipped it to China. They installed it in China. Their engineers taught the Chinese how to build with it. And that was their focus for 20 years, 30 years, 20 20 years. So we have only got one person to blame for China's rise in electronics. Only one >> good. Good. >> Good. Yeah. Bit too late perhaps, but yeah. >> No prizes back in gallons. So, Intel um a lot of people don't I don't know maybe don't realize or remember that Intel also makes a lot of memory not just the chips. >> Yeah, Intel is a very sad story. It's a very sad story. It's a it you know it's a question of pride coming before the fall. M >> I often tell the story about you know I had some person working for me who had a sister who was a quite senior in in the technical world of Intel. I remember having dinner with her one night in a restaurant in San Francisco and w with the person from with the sister from Intel and um I was talking and she said, "Yeah, I'm I'm taking a year off next year. I'm you know sbatical." I said, "Oh, you get a sbatical at Intel?" She said, "Yeah, every seven years we get a one-year sbatical at Intel." I said, "And what are you going to do after the sbatical?" She said, "Look around and see what I can do." I sold all my Intel stock the next day. Because you know when you to that level of wastefulness, pride and senselessness, lack of lack of understanding of, >> you know, the competitive world you live in. >> Yeah. >> You you're done. You're done. and they've been done for a long time. I mean, I'm talking 20 years ago. >> Yeah. Do you think it's it's a bit of a turnaround now with new management, new leadership, uh the Trump investment? >> I'll tell you, it's a new world with Elon walking the floors there. >> He he he will see what goes on there and he will turn that place upside down. I expect Intel will become part of SpaceX, XAI, Tesla. >> That's that was well, thank you for answering my next follow-up question. >> I mean, I poo pooed the idea of buying Intel a year or so ago when somebody brought it up. But I can see what Elon's doing. He's going in, he's checking out what's wrong. He's going to see if he can change it and fix it. and then he will think about acquiring it. >> Yeah, because they've got the gallium nitrite technology which is quite beneficial for for Terrafab. Uh it would make sense. Oh, the only thing is the price that he'd have to pay. I mean, if he'd done it um a year back, it would have been a very different picture. It's now more than doubled since then, almost tripled. >> You know, it doesn't have to be a purchase of the equity of the company. We'll see. We'll see. We'll see how it's done. >> I I'll tell you this. When it's done, it'll be done all right. And you know, he has an uncanny sense of the deal. Uncanny sense of the deal. You know, um, Donald Trump wrote a book called The Art of the Deal. I don't think he understands the art of the deal way Elon understands the art of a deal. You know, I I think that Trump understands the psychology of the deal, but not the economies of a deal. Elon understands the economies of the deal, the hell with the psychology of the deal >> and the technology and the technology, which then leads to the economies of the deal. >> Yeah. >> So, well, perfect segue. uh because um I think when we talk about the mask economy now we have to talk geopolitics because it's uh all linked and this is an entity that has an impact not only in America but across the world um also a big influential factor in um great power competition between the US and China. Trump is headed to China next week. Uh the 14th and 15th he's going to be in Beijing. Um what's your reading of I I mean apart from the the obvious transactional deals where he you know he'd hope that Beijing would buy a lot more of farm products and produce and uh you know the beef and uh all of that. I don't see anything really concrete coming out of that visit. Um, what about you? >> Yeah, Trump has a way of pulling a rabbit out of a hat. Sometimes that rabbit exists, sometimes it doesn't, but he still pulls it out of the hat. Um, >> I time will tell. I I'm not I'm not that I I'm not as great an observer of the you know world seen states craft to to to essay a serious thought on that. I think he'll do well. I think that look it it's more than it's highly likely that he needs Beijing to help close the deal in Iran. The Iran situation is really very troubling and it you know it's it hangs over the Trump administration and the Trump presidency that Trump went in to it was a surprise to everybody not necessarily to me but everybody seemed to be surprised but you know he he'd given them fairly stern warnings um and we'd had the first you know administration his first administration to witness. Um, so I I wasn't that surprised. Um, you know, a lot turns on on how Xi sees the future, his future, China's future. Xi is not in not necessarily in control right now in China. I think things are >> Yeah. >> very spotty in China. So I think >> yeah, I think she needs an agreement just as much as um Donald Trump needs an agreement. >> So here's my reading of the situation. Um, Larry, and feel free to disagree, but as far as the So, China gets about anything between 16 to 18% of its oil from Iran and anything between 40 to 50% um from the the Gulf region, the Gulf countries in in total, right? A lot of that of course flows through the straight of Hormuz. So any blockade or any disruption of flow through the straight form um is a direct hit to China. So China is as invested in the straits uh in the straight being uh open and free as any Southeast Asian country or India or anyone else. Of course, America doesn't have to bother about it. Um but the the Gulf countries do Europe does have to bother about it. China specifically. Um there's a lot why isn't the world why why doesn't the dependent world the world that's so dependent upon that oil? Why don't they show up? >> That's a question. >> Why are they allowing why are they allowing Iran even to attempt to take control of the the straits? >> That's my point. So to to your to your question and there's been so much of talk of of Chinese military power projection and if there was ever a time when that ought to have surfaced when that was when now when the rubber hit the road and Trump openly I think very astutely invited China to be part of an international grouping that would secure the home rules and China didn't turn up. So I think domestically what's happening the military has been purged of almost all of its top generals across the Chinese um people's liberation army air force rocket force navy su rightly said she she is on a very sticky wicket he's on a very weak uh wicket and I think the chances of China well maybe playing along with whatever Trump has in planned for as far as reopening the straight is concerned. Not necessarily appearing to play along. They'll make the usual noises at the UN, etc. But I think there's a great uh this is a great opportunity for Trump to sus out where she stands personally on a one-on-one basis when he meets up. I mean, your guess is as good as anybody's. I don't know what she which she will turn up. We know which Donald Trump will turn up. >> Yeah. >> You know, we just don't know which she will turn up. Time will tell. Time will tell. >> Listen, the guy who's in trouble right now, >> Yeah. >> serious trouble is the guy who runs Russia. >> Putin is in trouble. I've seen the turn of the screw there and uh you know Putin in charge, Putin getting into trouble. This 3-day ceasefire, >> yeah, >> does not indicate Putin had the power to to make things happen. I don't know what's going to happen, but I'll tell you this. I don't want to be in his shoes right now. >> Right. You are. >> And you know, he could be very dangerous in this situation. >> Yes. when he's got his back to the wall >> and now she has to think, >> you know, which side of the, you know, where do I want to be if things don't turn out well in Russia? So, it's interesting. >> Yeah. So, I think we're we're we're still in for a bit of u geopolitical uncertainty uh when it comes to the war uh in Iran. And that will probably in my assessment have an impact on the markets. Plus, by the way, the market always tests a new Fed chair. And you've got sell and may go away. I don't know how much that's going to be. I think this year selling may go. I mean, the market's at an all-time freaking high. >> Yeah. Which is which which makes me very >> Everybody predicted we're going to we're going to the dogs. It's going in the burn into the toilet. Blah blah blah blah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. But this the market at what 7000 plus is making me a bit jittery. Um because the supporting >> you only have to look at the manufacturing you only have to look at the manufacturing index in the United States right now. >> You you're all you're you you know what you guys are doing? You're focusing on headlines. >> You must look below the headlines and look at the manufacturing index. Look at the employment. Look at what's happening in the United States right now. We're seeing a revival of American manufacturing. >> Yeah. >> Like like it's the 19th century all over again. It's going to shock everybody. You heard it here first. >> From someone who just made a 5x on an investment, >> right? Says he with a big smile. >> Yes, absolutely. Congratulations. Thank you. >> All right, Larry, thank you so much. It's been such a pleasure talking to you. Um, >> just a programming note. I'm on the road now for the next two weeks. Uh, going to Austin, Texas, going to, you know, going to Starship, then going to Houston to NASA Houston. So, I'll be traveling and so hopefully we'll get together, but it may be that the equipment will be a little shaky. as if as shaking today. >> We'll make the best of it. Thank you so much. >> Thanks. >> We shall depend on Starling through test for stalling, shall we say? >> Right. Right. Thanks, Roy. >> Thank you, Larry. Thank you so much.