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Detailed Capex Estimates and Financial Models for Terafab Emerge
Analysts publish bottom-up capex projections ranging $87B-$191B based on wafer starts, yield, and EUV mix.
Read as thread →"our bottom-up analysis... $137B base, with a bear-bull range of $87B to $191B"
— @aaronburnett
Key Points
- Bernstein $5-13T vs independent $137B base case
- Yield and equipment drive variance
- Links to SpaceX S-1 and 1TW target
Coverage (68 sources)
ad-hoc-news.de SpaceX's Disclosure Wave Lays Bare a $200 Billion Shareholder Map — and a Stock Still Finding Its Aug 18 @LHJoshuaWrites (post) May 29 @100_yearsiron (post) May 28 @cb_doge (post) Aug 25 tradingkey.com XPRIZE Founder Says SpaceX Will Be First $10 Trillion Company as Musk Endorses; Can Five Business Units Support Valuation? Aug 4 techtimes.com Tesla Optimus Production Count Remains Zero as Q2 Earnings Call Looms Wednesday Jul 20 The Prestige Playbook Inside Elon Musk's $16.8 Billion Hidden TeraFab AI Compound Aug 31 @sbb_sbb8 (post) Jun 1 @Alex_Intel_ (post) Jun 3 benzinga.com Tesla Stock Erases $214 Billion in a Single Day — Here's What Happened This Month - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) - Benzinga Jul 24 @WR4NYGov (post) Jun 3 Tesla Insider News Musk’s $122B “Terafab” Gamble: The Greatest Pivot in Tech History? Aug 23 moomoo.com Outspending this year's entire market size in the next five years? Musk's 'chip mega-factory' Terafab makes a massive investment in semiconductor equipment. Jul 7 themarketperiodical.com Tesla Stock Price Analysis as Analysts Turn Sour on Growing Risks - The Market Periodical Jun 24 alto.gab.com SpaceX Slides Despite Big Revenue Beat, Tame CapEx | Alto Aug 4 seekingalpha.com Terrafab is 'critical' to SpaceX's valuation and future, Oppenheimer says (SPCX:NASDAQ) | Seeking Alpha Jul 15 @WR4NYGov (post) Jun 3 techchannel.news Terafab Calculus: Can Musk’s $16.8b chip bet redraw the semiconductor map? Aug 12 finance.yahoo.com Elon Musk Wants to Build the Largest Building on Earth: Over 100 Million Square Feet Aug 21 thestreet.com Tesla makes necessary change fans are going to hate - TheStreet May 18 ad-hoc-news.de SpaceX Pours $16.8 Billion Into Texas Chip Plant as Starlink's US Subscriber Base Nearly Triples Aug 16 finance.yahoo.com Tesla, SpaceX ‘Coming Soon’ Projects Are Finally Turning Real, Says Elon Musk — Terafab Could Dwarf America’s Highway System Aug 31 @cb_doge (post) Aug 25 @elonmusk (post) Aug 29 marketscreener.com SpaceX's Terafab Is Difficult but Necessary Project Critical to Valuation, Business, Oppenheimer Says | MarketScreener Jul 15 @teshen8lin (post) Jun 28 TESLA CAR WORLD Elon Musk's Giant $122B Terafab Outchip The Entire World! - YouTube Jul 10 @BestTrader01 (post) May 28 finance.biggo.com Tesla's Cybertruck Called the Biggest Flop in Auto History as Stock Plunges 18% in a Week — BigGo Finance Jul 27 inews.zoombangla.com Elon Musk’s Terafab Chip Factory Could Cost $119 Billion Aug 13 therationalinvestor.in Is Elon Musk's Terafab Real, and Who Else Is Actually Competing With Nvidia? | The Rational Investor Aug 8 finance.biggo.com Tesla Outpaces Nvidia and Alphabet in August as Musk's $16.8 Billion Chip Complex Advances — BigGo Finance Aug 26 stockstotrade.com SPCX Stock Whipsaws As Terafab Megabuild Meets AI Uncertainty - StocksToTrade Aug 10 blockonomi.com Tesla (TSLA) Stock: Oppenheimer Projects $29.4B Capex — 25% Above Wall Street Consensus - Blockonomi Jun 18 benzinga.com Musk’s Net Worth Down $407 Billion From Trillion-Plus High as SpaceX Stock Dives - Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), S - Benzinga Jul 12 @aaronburnett (post) May 27 stocktwits.com Elon Musk's ‘Coming Soon’ List Is Getting Real – Terafab Could Cost More Than America’s Highway System Aug 31 @FelixStelaAurea (post) Jun 3 notateslaapp.com Tesla's Hidden 'Elon Mode' Unveiled: A Sneak Peek into the Future of FSD [Video] Jul 2 @farzyness (post) Jun 30 Tech Royale Just Happened! Elon Musk Reveals The $119B Terafab That Shocks The Industry Jun 28 basenor.com Tesla & SpaceX Launch Terafab: $119B Chip Megafactory May 27 @VladSaigau (post) Jun 2 simplywall.st Tesla (Nasdaq:TSLA) - Stock Analysis - Simply Wall St Jul 21 @WR4NYGov (post) Jun 3 @rameshbende (post) Jun 3 @technicalmeow (post) Jul 2 billionaires.africa Elon Musk says SpaceX will hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 but Amazon may beat him to it first Aug 20 franksworld.com Unveiling the Hidden Costs and Ambitions of a Mega Chip Factory – Frank's World of Data Science & AI Sep 1 fool.com SpaceX Is Building a $16.8 Billion Chip Fab in Texas. Is This a Genius Move or a Red Flag For Investors? | The Motley Fool Aug 26 finance.yahoo.com The Quiet Winner of Elon Musk’s $16.8 Billion Terafab Bet Is a US Chipmaker Stock Aug 11 @farzyness (post) Jun 30 tradingkey.com Terafab Project Accelerates Implementation, but at What Cost to Musk? Tech Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Terafab Faces Multiple Execution Risks May 28 247wallst.com Price Prediction: Tesla Poised for 12% Rally as Profit Margins Improve - 24/7 Wall St. Jul 18 tradingview.com SPCX Stock Climbs After Trump Discloses SpaceX Stake — Goldman Sees Musk’s Terafab Fueling A $281B Chip Boom — TradingView News Aug 25 manufacturingdigital.com Global Chip Supply: Plans Behind $16.8bn Terafab Investment | Manufacturing Digital Aug 11 ai-supremacy.com Tensions mount over AI Consequences on the Future May 19 themarketperiodical.com Tesla Stock Forecast as Analysts Turn Bullish Ahead of Earnings - The Market Periodical Jul 14 finance.biggo.com Musk Bets $25 Billion on Humanoid Hands as Tesla Faces Its Toughest Manufacturing Test Yet — BigGo Finance Jul 23 kiplinger.com 5 Questions About SpaceX’s Computer Chip Ambitions | Kiplinger Aug 17 monopolisticinvestor.substack.com SpaceX - thoughts of an 18-year old investor May 29 metatrends.substack.com Why SpaceX Will Be the First $10 Trillion Company Aug 4 @b_sharon62805 (post) Jul 2 finance.biggo.com SpaceX Joins Nasdaq 100 Then Tumbles 7%; Legendary Investor Warns of 90% Crash Probability — BigGo Finance Jul 7 simplywall.st Tesla (NasdaqGS:TSLA) Stock Forecast & Analyst Predictions - Simply Wall St Jul 30 247wallst.com Elon Musk Is Spending $119 Billion on A Single Building Outside Houston. Here's Who Actually Profits. - 24/7 Wall St. Aug 31 @Money_or_Life_X (post) Jun 24 financhill.com Is Intel the Big Winner From Terafab? May 30